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Ever been in a situation where you know you have the skills to win but are then shamed into second place by someone with amazing amounts of confidence but not the skill to explain it? Turns out, according to a study published in last week’s issue of Nature, their advantage likely lies in that overconfident outlook.

Basically, researchers set up a game-theory computer model in which competitors had to choose whether or not to claim a resource despite the costs and make their decision based on what they thought they knew about the strength of their competition.

After running thousands of tests, those who were overconfident in their abilities not only came out on top in terms of making the most profitable decisions, but passed their inflated egos onto the next generation.

On an individual level, then, this behavior is beneficial, but researchers surmise that, while that success may explain why overconfidence is so widespread, it could be this very behavior that’s leading our culture as a whole down a destructive path, from getting involved in unwinnable wars to financial collapse.

Full story at Nature via Discover Magazine.

The power of the mind.

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