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The Presidential Predictor, a measure of how well the market performs in the three months before an election, suggests that Donald Trump will lose this election to Joe Biden. The measure has correctly predicted every  winner since 1984 and has correctly predicted 20 out of the last 23 elections.

New polls show Biden’s lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin is widening. In 2016, all three of those states went to Donald Trump. In Wisconsin, Biden’s lead is now 9 points, which is beyond the margin of error.

The former Republican governor of Pennsylvania is supporting Joe Biden for President, breaking with his party. Tom Ridge said he has never voted for a Democratic presidential candidate before, but that his long history of rejecting Donald Trump compels him to make this decision. He compared Trump to George W. Bush, who stood on the rubble of Ground Zero with a megaphone, uniting the country. Could Trump do such a thing, Ridge asks? Even if he could, he hasn’t––he has not gone to the CDC to rally the nation against COVID.

According to a poll by the Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler, Joe Biden has a three-percent lead over Donald Trump, with 48% of voters supporting Biden to Trump’s 45%.

There are all sorts of polls showing that Trump is in trouble. One suggests that 49% of Americans think Trump should be criminally investigated (I can’t believe that’s even a thing I’m writing right now) after he’s out of office. Another poll says 56% of Americans don’t think Trump deserves reelection. A third poll says that Trump is in a lot of trouble if America’s young voters actually show up to vote.

But, Joe Biden’s campaign manager is warning everyone: don’t get cocky, this race is much closer than the so-called experts are predicting. President Obama is saying the same thing––vote early, because it’s going to be close.