Biden is rising in national polls
Posted by Thomas Bush / September 10, 2020
Joe Biden is rising in national polls. A Reuters/Ipsos poll has Biden 12 points ahead of Trump.
Just last week, a nationwide poll had Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by ten points––52 to 42. But focusing on only one or two polls, or kinds of polls, can lead to serious miscalculations. Exhibit A: the 2016 presidential election. This election year, the media is being a lot more careful about diversifying the kinds of polls they cite. Instead of the blunt, “who will you vote for?” kind of toll, we’re starting to see polls digging into more nuanced issues. The latest polls suggest that voters are much more enthusiastic about voting for Biden than they were in March––48% say they’re very excited about voting for Biden. But Trump has him beat: 65% of Trump voters are very excited about him. Trump’s favorability ratings––that is, how people feel about Trump––are dropping slowly but steadily.
This doesn’t mean Democrats should be complacent. There is a very real chance Democrats could lose Minnesota.
Suburban women, many of whom voted for Trump in 2016, are experiencing so much buyer’s remorse that they’re rallying against Trump. Similarly, Vermont’s Republican governor Phil Scott has said he will not be voting for President Trump and would in fact be considering supporting Biden. That’s yet another Republican to leave Trump’s camp. The anonymous Trump official who wrote a devastating op-ed against Trump has spoken up again, this time to encourage voters to get Trump out of office.
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